From Data Steward to Political Lightning Rod: McEntarfer Out, Antoni In at the BLS
From steady hands to untested reforms, the leadership shift at BLS could ripple through Social Security, SSI, VA, and military COLA.
The Gist:
Trump just fired Erika McEntarfer, a widely respected economist who kept politics out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and replaced her with E.J. Antoni — a Heritage Foundation partisan best known for calling monthly jobs reports “phony baloney.” The timing? Right in the middle of the COLA calculation window. The ripple effects could hit Social Security, SSI, VA, and military benefits.
🔍 The Big Change
On August 1, 2025, President Trump fired Erika McEntarfer, the Senate-confirmed Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), right in the middle of the data window that determines the 2026 Cost-of-Living Adjustment (COLA).
Now he’s named her replacement: E.J. Antoni, a conservative economist from the Heritage Foundation who’s already floated the idea of halting the monthly jobs report — one of the most widely used data products in the country.
This isn’t a quiet handoff. It’s a seismic shift in how the nation’s labor and inflation data could be collected, reported, and trusted.
🧠 Erika McEntarfer: Career Economist, Data Steward
Ph.D. in economics (Virginia Tech)
20+ years in federal economic roles: Census Bureau, Treasury Department, White House Council of Economic Advisers
Confirmed 86–8 by the Senate in 2024 with broad bipartisan support
Widely respected for her nonpartisan, data-first approach and commitment to BLS integrity
Supported by former commissioners, including Trump’s own 2019–2023 BLS head, William Beach
She kept the agency’s work out of political battles and focused on accuracy, continuity, and credibility.
She was the steady hand on the scales. Now, the scale itself is up for grabs.
🆕 E.J. Antoni: Partisan Reform Advocate
Ph.D. in economics (Northern Illinois University, 2020)
Chief economist at the Heritage Foundation
Contributor to Project 2025
Taught some courses in labor economics and monetary policy (though good luck finding a clear record of where or when)
Called monthly jobs reports “phony baloney”
Funny — that’s exactly what I call his credentials.
Proposed suspending monthly jobs reports in favor of slower quarterly releases, citing “data quality” concerns
Supporters paint him as a “truth-teller.” Critics see him as a political appointee set to reframe how — and when — core economic data is released.
And then there’s the taste issue: Antoni once proudly displayed artwork of the Bismarck — Nazi Germany’s pride-and-quickly-sunk battleship — during his Heritage Foundation days. Not exactly a show of American patriotism. Maybe it’s just “plausible deniability.” Maybe it’s just bad optics. Either way, the vibe isn’t “data steward,” it’s “secret handshake.”
💥 Why This Matters to Your Benefits
The CPI-W, calculated by the BLS, determines COLA — the percentage increase applied each year to:
Social Security
SSI
VA disability compensation
Military retirement
Survivor benefits
Any change in methodology, reporting frequency, or data credibility could:
Shift the official inflation number
Delay the COLA announcement
Undermine public trust in whether the increase reflects real costs
For 2026, we’re in the final stretch of the CPI-W calculation period (July–September 2025). A change in leadership now isn’t just about politics — it’s about the integrity of the number that decides how far your check will go next year.
When the person keeping the books gets fired, you don’t just lose a nameplate. You risk the ledger itself.
📌 Bottom Line
Erika McEntarfer brought decades of nonpartisan public service and a reputation for keeping politics out of the data.
E.J. Antoni brings ideological loyalty, a disdain for the very numbers he’ll be responsible for, and — if his résumé is any guide — a willingness to turn the BLS into another partisan battlefield.
When the numbers decide how much you can afford to live on, this isn’t an obscure personnel change. It’s a direct hit on your wallet.
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